ENVIRONMETRICS AUSTRALIA
Statistical Solutions to Environmental Problems

News & Updates

De-Sal Dilemma
07 July 2010 
There has been a frenzied rush to construct desalination plants in Australia. Not only have the business cases been questioned, and in some cases severely criticised, new doubts have been raised about the science underpinning components of the environmental studies.

CSIRO gags on the truth?
3 July 2010 
An article in the Age newspaper again raises doubts about the openness and transparency of Australia's leading scientific agency, the CSIRO.

Statistical Ecotoxicology
06 April 2010 
A commentary on the role of statistical science in ecotoxicology.

Challenges for the Statistics Profession
06 April 2010 
The American Statistician has made available free of charge articles appearing in the Special Section: Opportunities and Challenges for the Discipline published in the February 2010 edition of the Journal.

Statistician hits the wrong note
April 3 2010 
A letter published in the February 2010 edition of RSS News (a publication of the Royal Statistical Society) by John Flynn provides another example of how not to help promote the cause of statistics and statisticians.

Numeracy in decline? - let me count the ways.
17 March 2010 
A report (click here to download a copy) just released by the Group of Eight (Go8) Australian universities concludes that we're going backwards with respect to numeracy.

De-sal de-lay
March 09, 2010 
The Queensland government has announced that it is looking at delaying construction of its proposed desalination plant as storage levels peak at 94%.

Statistics and Biosecurity
March 04, 2010 
An article written by Prof. David Fox on the role of statistics in biosecurity surveillance and monitoring has just been published in the latest edition of Issues.

The statistics of climate change
February 15, 2010 
So who do you believe when it comes to climate change?

The Future of Statistics and Statisticians
13 February 2010 
Ever had a need to consult a statistician? Many who have complain that the experience was not entirely pleasant and/or constructive. So what's wrong?

NOECs, LOECs, ECx - Opinion
November 23, 2009 
The latest edition of the Australasian Journal of Ecotoxicology has two opinion pieces on the role of NOECs (and other statistical measures) used in ecotoxicology.

New Workshop - Bayesian Ecotoxicology
04 November 2009 
We are pleased to announce a new 1-day workshop on Bayesian methods for ecotoxicology.

New Journal Article on Bayesian Ecotoxicology!
20 October 2009 
A new paper titled "A Bayesian approach for determining the no effect concentration and hazardous concentration in ecotoxicology" has just been published in Ecotoxicology and Environmental Safety.

New reports Added!
9 September 2009 
Visit our Download page (click the tab above) and check out the new reports added.

Wonthaggi De-salination Plant - And the winner is...
July 31, 2009 
The Victorian Government today announced the winning bid to build and operate Australia's largest desalination plant at Wonthaggi.

New Report on Biosurveillance
July 16, 2009 
The Australian Centre of Excellence for Risk Analysis at the University of Melbourne has released the final report for Project 0605 (Statistical Methods for Biosecurity).

MODSIM 2009
July 16, 2009 
The 18th. IMACS/MODSIM conference is being held this week in Cairns, Australia.

Statistical Issues in Ecotoxicology
July 02, 2009 
It is becoming increasingly common practice in ecotoxicology to use ECx data rather than NOECs. In a recent 'Learned Discourse', David Fox argues that this is unsound and fraught with difficulties.



Archive

De-sal de-lay
March 09, 2010 

The Queensland government has announced that it is looking at delaying construction of its proposed desalination plant as storage levels peak at 94%.


What a difference a storm makes! We believe climate change and climate variability (a tautology!) are real. What is a little unreal is the knee-jerk responses of our state governments. Victoria has built its north-south pipeline to harvest water from the north of the state for consumption by city-dwellers. At the same time, construction proceeds at break-neck speed on the Wonthaggi de-salination plant - the largest in the southern hemisphere. The Victorian government dismissed alternative uses of the massive amounts (~ 370 million litres per day, every day - equivalent to Adelaide's daily water use!) of an almost potable resource that is being dumped into Bass Strait (not far from Wonthaggi!) on the basis that the options under consideration were too expensive (click here for related News Item).

So what happens when the drought breaks (as as happened in Queensland) and we experience a significant flood event and the spillways are overflowing? Do we turn off the de-sal plant? Being a PPP (Public Private Partnership) there are clearly commercial interests to protect. Turning off the de-sal plant is probably not an option.

Where this has all gone horribly wrong is the undue (indecent?) haste with which politicians embraced the 'quick-fix' solutions. In 1999, CSIRO released the results of its Effluent Management Study (go to our Download page and scroll down to the section
Eastern Treatment Plant Effluent Management Study to get a copy of the report). On page 52 of that report a number of reuse options were discussed. One suggestion was to treat the effluent to potable standard and pump it back into Cardinia reservoir. CSIRO's assessment of this option was that "this could provide a total solution, which would eventually lead to no ocean discharge". At the time, this option was ruled out by the Government on the grounds that it was too expensive, would require the burning of more brown coal in Latrobe Valley (to power the pumps) - thereby exacerbating the Greenhouse effect, and had low public acceptance. Advance the clock 11 years and what's happening? Over $300 million has been spent by Melbourne Water in upgrading the Eastern Treatment Plant to advanced tertiary treatment (meaning the effluent discharged to the ocean is one small step from being drinkable) while having committed to an energy intesive de-sal plant that will (at least initially) result in more brown coal being burnt. Go figure!

The solution: simple - stop the de-sal plants and make use of what we've already got. If the risks of putting treated effluent into the same storage that collects rainwater and run-off are unacceptably high, then construct a holding dam for the treated effluent and have constant monitoring at multiple points (at the treatment plant, after treatment, in the transfer pipes, in the holding dam, and prior to "shandying"). An added bonus of this strategy is that the tap gets turned off at Boags Rocks (near Gunnamatta Beach) which means no more damage to the local ecosystem and swimmers and surfers no longer having to contend with a brown, smelly plume and 'floatables' such as cotton sticks and other undesirable 'stuff'!

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